Record long-term holder supply signals shift away from accumulation
Nearly 40% of all Bitcoin in circulation was bought at prices higher than where it trades today, leaving a substantial share of holders sitting on unrealized losses. The metric underscores a broader slowdown in demand from the largest Bitcoin holders, whose purchasing activity has flattened since early 2025.
Whale-sized accounts, defined as holdings between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, have seen annual balance growth turn negative according to CryptoQuant, the on-chain analytics firm. Monthly growth across the whale cohort turned essentially flat in February 2025, mirroring patterns from the 2022 bear market. Dolphins, accounts holding 100 to 1,000 BTC, posted lower highs starting in September 2025.
Whale and dolphin groups together form the backbone of structural demand in Bitcoin markets. Their pullback coincides with long-term holder supply reaching a record 15.8 million BTC, indicating existing holders are sitting tight while new buyers remain scarce.
Tim Sun, a researcher at HashKey Group, notes the share of supply at unrealized loss has approached 50%, a level not seen since the depths of the 2022 downturn. Sun conditions his price floor assumptions on two factors: the US-Iran situation not worsening and the Federal Reserve holding off on rate hikes. “A definitive shift toward easier monetary policy and looser financial conditions would need to come first,” Sun said.
Sun pegs an absolute bottom range between $40,000 and $45,000, though he views $55,000 to $60,000 as a more realistic floor. Bitcoin currently trades around $73,500. A distribution cluster spanning $66,000 to $80,000 represents the zone where buyers and sellers battle, according to analysis on TradingView.
Crypto analyst Darkfost described the current market as a difficult range to trade, with euphoria at the upper end and pessimism at the lower end. Bitcoin was trading near $73,510 as of May 28, 2026.
The convergence of record long-term holder supply and stalled whale purchasing suggests the market is in a holding pattern. Without fresh demand from large accumulators, the price floor remains contested territory.
